PVC Market on May 27
PVC futures analysis: On May 27, the night trading price of PVC2509 contract opened high and went down, and the night trading price fell significantly.
In the early trading, the futures price fell below the 4800 mark and continued to fall slightly, and then it was consolidated in a narrow range at a low level, and continued to maintain this trend in the afternoon.
V2509 contract opening price: 4862, highest price: 4865, lowest price: 4775, price difference 90, increase in position 51238 lots, position: 1018526, settlement price: 4807, yesterday's settlement: 4870, down 63, daily trading volume: 839870 lots, deposited funds: 3.417 billion, capital inflow: 123 million.
List of comprehensive prices in various regions: yuan/ton
PVC spot market: The mainstream transaction price of the domestic PVC market fell from a low level, and the atmosphere in the market was obviously weak.
From the comparison of valuations: North China fell by 30-40 yuan/ton, East China fell by 50-60 yuan/ton, South China fell by 30-50 yuan/ton, Northeast China fell by 40-50 yuan/ton, Central China fell by 50 yuan/ton, and Southwest China fell by 50 yuan/ton. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC manufacturers generally fell from a low level, with a reduction of 30-50 yuan/ton.
The transaction continued to be dominated by basic volume, and the first generation of merchants had a heavy wait-and-see mentality. Futures fell significantly and tested the low range again.
The spot market's fixed price quotations fell slightly across the board, but the basis quotations had advantages after the futures price fell. The basis quotations in various regions narrowed slightly, among which the basis quotations in East China were 09 contracts (70-140-200), 09 contracts in South China (20-70), 09 contracts in the North (310-380-420), and 09 contracts (400-500) for some sources in the Southwest.
The spot market has seen an increase in low-level transactions compared to the previous period, and the enthusiasm of downstream purchases has been partially improved, and the transaction atmosphere in the spot market has improved compared to yesterday.
PVC market outlook:
Futures: The price of the PVC2509 contract fell below the integer mark of 4800 and continued to decline. The low point of 4775 was close to the previous low of 4755 of the 09 contract, and the market showed a trend of increasing positions and going down.
The daily increase in positions was more than 51,200 lots, of which 29.2% were short compared to 23.4% long. The short position returned to increase positions and the downward trend was filled with a bearish atmosphere. The technical closing line also began to turn to a bearish trend.
The three tracks of the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) opened and diverged, and the low point of the futures price began to gradually approach the lower track position. The KD line dead cross trend at the daily level expanded, and the two MACD lines began to cross.
At present, the guidance from the fundamentals and policies is insufficient. It is expected that the operation of the futures price in the short term may still be weak, and the performance of the previous low position will be observed.
Spot: Overall commodity sentiment weakened, among which the cultural commodity index slightly broke through the lower track position at the low point.
Except for some agricultural products, most domestic commodities fell and weakened. PVC also showed a sharp downward trend.
The spot market was affected by the negative impact and fell synchronously, but there was still rigid demand for spot goods. Therefore, after the futures price fell, although the basis quotations converged slightly, the enthusiasm for inquiries in the spot market and low-level pending orders increased.
At present, the prices of PVC futures and spot markets have returned to the low range test. It is difficult to find positive factors in the market, and the negative sentiment is heavy.
In the foreign market, the price of the international crude oil futures market closed slightly lower due to news that the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC oil-producing countries such as Russia may hold a meeting one day earlier than originally planned to decide the oil production level in July. Overall, the current support in the market is insufficient, and the price may return to the low range again.
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